Job Growth Slows Down in November
Employers add far fewer positions than expected. But the unemployment rate declines to 5.4%.
By David Streitfeld
Times Staff Writer
December 4, 2004
The nation's hiring engine sputtered again in November, as the Labor Department reported Friday that the economy added an unimpressive 112,000 net jobs during the month.
That was much less than the 200,000 jump economists were expecting, and only about two-thirds of what is needed each month just to keep up with population growth.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, from 5.5% the previous month.
"Just when I thought it was safe to say the job market had finally firmed up, we discovered once again we were wrong," said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. "There's a new psychology in the corporate sector. If they need to hire 10 people, they try to get by with five."
Employment growth has seesawed all year, with brief periods of strength followed by extended episodes of weakness. November's numbers looked particularly poor in contrast to October's total, an impressive 303,000 even after being revised downward Friday.
October's numbers were probably inflated by temporary jobs stemming from cleaning up Florida after four successive hurricanes, economists said.
It's not surprising that business executives are cautious. Consumer confidence is down and interest rates are moving up, both of which could foreshadow a drop in household spending.
"Employers sense the economy will slow in the first several months of 2005 and thus see no reason to rush out and add to their payroll, especially now that analysts are projecting slimmer corporate profit growth next year," said Bernard Baumohl of Economic Outlook Group.
The Bush administration put a positive spin on the report. The jobs numbers are "a confirmation that the American economy is on a steady growth path," Treasury Secretary John W. Snow said. The economy has created more than 2 million net jobs this year, averaging nearly 200,000 a month, he said.
Others drew a more pessimistic picture.
The liberal Economic Policy Institute noted that in July 2003 the administration called its tax cut a "Jobs and Growth Plan." The White House's Council of Economic Advisors estimated then that 5.5 million jobs would be created by the end of 2004.
With one month to go, the institute said, the forecast is 3 million jobs short.
"Any time there's been a month of good job growth, people think it's going to settle down into consistently good job growth," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the institute. "That hasn't happened. It's very uncertain that it will."
If job creation has been underwhelming, wages have lately turned that way too. Average weekly wages fell $1.25 in November to $533.47. Over the last year, wages rose more slowly than inflation.
That might be a reason why the number of people holding down two jobs increased by 346,000 in the last year, to 7.6 million. Multiple jobholders are now 5.4% of the labor force.
November's job growth was held down by the elimination of 16,200 retailing positions. That restraint by merchants now looks smart in light of disappointing holiday sales. Manufacturers, whose four-year-old slump seemed to have ended in the spring, tightened their belts again, cutting another 5,000 jobs.
One bright spot was the lodging industry, up 18,000. However, the Labor Department said about half of that growth was because of the return of striking workers. Other strong categories included hospitals, up 8,000; nursing and residential care facilities, up 7,000; and physicians' offices, up 6,000.
Sluggish job reports imply a weakening economy. But the consensus viewpoint is still that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark short-term interest rate another quarter point, to 2.25%, at its next meeting Dec. 14.
Despite even softer payroll numbers in the summer, "the Fed kept tightening," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in a report to clients. Another increase in February, he added, was "still more likely than not."
Wells Fargo Bank's chief economist, Sung Won Sohn, didn't believe the weak employment report boded trouble for the economy.
"It is too early to be pessimistic," Sohn said, pointing out that "uncertainties have diminished in recent months. We have gone through the Olympics and the national election without terrorism, the price of oil is trending down…. Business spending on equipment, software, inventories, etc., has been rising."
On Wall Street, the bad news about employment was offset by a continued fall in oil prices and a bullish revenue outlook from chip giant Intel Corp. Oil prices dropped below $43 for the first time in more than two months.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 7.09 points, or 0.07%, to 10,592.21.
Bond yields, however, tumbled, reflecting views of a slower economy.
Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times
Saturday, December 04, 2004
National Guard Not Getting Proper Training For Iraq
Guard's Iraq Fears Spark Inquiry
The officer who oversees the military branch says training is suitable but could be relayed better.
By Scott Gold
Times Staff Writer
December 4, 2004
HOUSTON — The chief of the National Guard said Friday that an informal inquiry at an Army base where soldiers had alleged they were being poorly trained found instead that they were being prepared "to be successful and survive their mission in Iraq."
"Are they finely honed and ready to go today? No," said Lt. Gen. H. Steven Blum, adding that he had found some problems at the Ft. Bliss Training Complex, which straddles the border between Texas and New Mexico.
"But that's why they've got more training to do."
Since soldiers at the Army's Doña Ana Range leveled their charges in a Los Angeles Times article, however, additional Guard members had reiterated the battalion's concerns.
"We're not being prepared for our mission," one sergeant said in a telephone interview Thursday night. "A lot of times we don't even know what our mission is."
The soldiers said the training was so poor that they feared there would be needless casualties in Iraq.
Blum, who has served in the National Guard since 1968, was appointed by President Bush last spring. He oversees the half-million people who serve in the Army and Air National Guards.
The soldiers, members of a Modesto-based battalion of the California Army National Guard, said they were under lockdown at Doña Ana and were being treated more like prisoners than soldiers.
Although supportive of the war in Iraq and eager to serve, they said that they had received very little training that was "theater-specific" — that would prepare them for the missions they expected to face when they arrived overseas in January or February. For example, they said, they have had virtually no instruction regarding convoy protection or guarding against insurgents' roadside bombs.
At the center of their allegations is the changing role of the National Guard and reservists, who, as the war in Iraq continues, have been moved rapidly to the front lines. About 40% of the troops in Iraq are either National Guard troops or reservists.
The Guard troops at Doña Ana have alleged that the military commanders do not trust them to go to war, and have implemented a two-tier training regimen — one for them and one for active-duty soldiers. The Army denies that, and Blum said he found no evidence of "second-class citizen stuff" after visiting Ft. Bliss and Doña Ana on Thursday and Friday.
Blum said it had not been easy to change the role of the National Guard, but that he embraced its new mission.
"This country should never go to war for any reason without the National Guard," he said. "When you call up the Guard, you call up America…. Does it make it politically harder? Absolutely. It should be a hard decision to send young men and women to war."
Blum said his visit did reveal some shortcomings in Guard training, but he said he believed the issues would be addressed.
For instance, he said, commanders probably should have given the soldiers more time off; the soldiers said they received one day off prior to Thanksgiving since they were activated in August. And Blum said the training regimen had not been adequately explained to soldiers, leaving some with the impression that their training was substandard.
"Leadership has an obligation to explain it to the last guy in the last rank," he said.
Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times
The officer who oversees the military branch says training is suitable but could be relayed better.
By Scott Gold
Times Staff Writer
December 4, 2004
HOUSTON — The chief of the National Guard said Friday that an informal inquiry at an Army base where soldiers had alleged they were being poorly trained found instead that they were being prepared "to be successful and survive their mission in Iraq."
"Are they finely honed and ready to go today? No," said Lt. Gen. H. Steven Blum, adding that he had found some problems at the Ft. Bliss Training Complex, which straddles the border between Texas and New Mexico.
"But that's why they've got more training to do."
Since soldiers at the Army's Doña Ana Range leveled their charges in a Los Angeles Times article, however, additional Guard members had reiterated the battalion's concerns.
"We're not being prepared for our mission," one sergeant said in a telephone interview Thursday night. "A lot of times we don't even know what our mission is."
The soldiers said the training was so poor that they feared there would be needless casualties in Iraq.
Blum, who has served in the National Guard since 1968, was appointed by President Bush last spring. He oversees the half-million people who serve in the Army and Air National Guards.
The soldiers, members of a Modesto-based battalion of the California Army National Guard, said they were under lockdown at Doña Ana and were being treated more like prisoners than soldiers.
Although supportive of the war in Iraq and eager to serve, they said that they had received very little training that was "theater-specific" — that would prepare them for the missions they expected to face when they arrived overseas in January or February. For example, they said, they have had virtually no instruction regarding convoy protection or guarding against insurgents' roadside bombs.
At the center of their allegations is the changing role of the National Guard and reservists, who, as the war in Iraq continues, have been moved rapidly to the front lines. About 40% of the troops in Iraq are either National Guard troops or reservists.
The Guard troops at Doña Ana have alleged that the military commanders do not trust them to go to war, and have implemented a two-tier training regimen — one for them and one for active-duty soldiers. The Army denies that, and Blum said he found no evidence of "second-class citizen stuff" after visiting Ft. Bliss and Doña Ana on Thursday and Friday.
Blum said it had not been easy to change the role of the National Guard, but that he embraced its new mission.
"This country should never go to war for any reason without the National Guard," he said. "When you call up the Guard, you call up America…. Does it make it politically harder? Absolutely. It should be a hard decision to send young men and women to war."
Blum said his visit did reveal some shortcomings in Guard training, but he said he believed the issues would be addressed.
For instance, he said, commanders probably should have given the soldiers more time off; the soldiers said they received one day off prior to Thanksgiving since they were activated in August. And Blum said the training regimen had not been adequately explained to soldiers, leaving some with the impression that their training was substandard.
"Leadership has an obligation to explain it to the last guy in the last rank," he said.
Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times
Thursday, December 02, 2004
Records: Frist Campaign Lost $500,000 IN THE STOCK MARKET!
This guy Frist and his elite GOP pals runs the Senate and the government and they want to change Social Security to private investment accounts? On top of this the bank is giving him a sweetheart deal by rolling over the loan on his campaign debt! The corruption of the GOP knows no bounds.
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. - Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's campaign committee lost more than $500,000 in the stock market since the 2000 election and could not cover a bank loan that came due in August, records showed.
Campaign treasurer Linus Catignani said U.S. Bank "rolled over" the $360,000 loan and the money is now due in 2007. U.S. Bank spokesman Steve Dale said the company does not comment on individual loans.
The committee had paid off about $10,000 as of Sept. 30, according to its federal campaign filing.
It had $362,000 at the beginning of July, enough to pay off the loan, but lost $32,057, or 8.8 percent, in the stock market in July and August, the records showed.
By the end of September, after paying other expenses, the campaign had $312,807, the Chattanooga Times Free Press reported this week after reviewing the records.
Altogether, the committee lost more than $524,000 on stocks since November 2000, the records showed.
A Nashville office of U.S Bank made the loan with a 4 percent interest rate in August 2001. Catignani told The Washington Post that the campaign committee took out the loan to pay various political expenses so it would not have to cash out its stock holdings.
Interest earnings will pay the loan off by its new due date, Catignani said.
Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, D.C., questioned whether the bank provided special privileges to Frist.
"Are the policies U.S. Bank used to extend his loan the same as what is offered to members of the public?" she said.
A Federal Election Commission audit approved in September found accounting mistakes and inadequate disclosure in reporting from Frist's political action committee during 2002. The errors were not serious, the FEC said.
Frist, a heart surgeon before he turned to politics, was first elected to the Senate in 1994 and re-elected in 2000. He became majority leader in 2002 when his predecessor, Sen. Trent Lott, was forced to give up his leadership position after he praised Strom Thurmond's pro-segregationist presidential run of 1948.
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. - Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's campaign committee lost more than $500,000 in the stock market since the 2000 election and could not cover a bank loan that came due in August, records showed.
Campaign treasurer Linus Catignani said U.S. Bank "rolled over" the $360,000 loan and the money is now due in 2007. U.S. Bank spokesman Steve Dale said the company does not comment on individual loans.
The committee had paid off about $10,000 as of Sept. 30, according to its federal campaign filing.
It had $362,000 at the beginning of July, enough to pay off the loan, but lost $32,057, or 8.8 percent, in the stock market in July and August, the records showed.
By the end of September, after paying other expenses, the campaign had $312,807, the Chattanooga Times Free Press reported this week after reviewing the records.
Altogether, the committee lost more than $524,000 on stocks since November 2000, the records showed.
A Nashville office of U.S Bank made the loan with a 4 percent interest rate in August 2001. Catignani told The Washington Post that the campaign committee took out the loan to pay various political expenses so it would not have to cash out its stock holdings.
Interest earnings will pay the loan off by its new due date, Catignani said.
Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, D.C., questioned whether the bank provided special privileges to Frist.
"Are the policies U.S. Bank used to extend his loan the same as what is offered to members of the public?" she said.
A Federal Election Commission audit approved in September found accounting mistakes and inadequate disclosure in reporting from Frist's political action committee during 2002. The errors were not serious, the FEC said.
Frist, a heart surgeon before he turned to politics, was first elected to the Senate in 1994 and re-elected in 2000. He became majority leader in 2002 when his predecessor, Sen. Trent Lott, was forced to give up his leadership position after he praised Strom Thurmond's pro-segregationist presidential run of 1948.
Monday, November 29, 2004
Time to Get Real, Governor
L.A. TIMES EDITORIAL
November 29, 2004
Happy holidays, Gov. Schwarzenegger. You have about a month left to compile a spending plan for a state that operates like a miraculous but defective ATM, continuously spewing out more than comes in. You'll finally have to be candid with the people who elected you about how little can be done through cuts alone or "blowing up the boxes" of the bureaucracy.
A year ago, Arnold Schwarzenegger boasted that he'd tear up the state credit card and put state finances back in the black. Big talk. Little action. The budget shortfall was largely papered over. Voters had to approve a $15-billion debt bond, and billions more in spending was pushed into the future. Government-watchers at the time generally gave him a pass because he was so new to the job. Those days are over.
Rising state revenues are not nearly enough to close a multibillion-dollar spending gap. Schwarzenegger seems to be relying on his massive California Performance Review, a catch-all study of ideas for reorganizing government and saving money. But a stream of experts last week told the Little Hoover Commission, a long-standing and sober analyst of government, how difficult it will be to pull off even a limited reorganization. Though efficiency is a fine goal, the billions in savings aren't really there.
The California Taxpayers Assn., an anti-tax group, tried its own spin, declaring that holding general fund spending to a 4.2% increase would balance the budget. Sounds good, but even if the group hadn't used any little tricks to reach the figure, much of the budget goes to programs such as Medi-Cal and welfare, for which levels of spending are dictated by federal or state law or both. That means gutting more vulnerable agencies, for instance a Department of Parks and Recreation that is already pared to the bone.
To balance the budget on cuts alone could require a slash of up to 10% in health and social services, an area that accounts for nearly a third of the budget, yet one that helps those most in need. Democrats vow to prevent that, which they should, but they also must be willing to negotiate some savings.
On the other hand, Schwarzenegger and Republicans need to back off their absolute opposition to any new revenue. Californians have enjoyed billions of dollars in tax cuts over the last 10 years, $4 billion alone last year in the vehicle license fee. A better balance could be reached with minimum pain simply by extending the sales tax to a variety of services that are routinely taxed in other major states. Movies, sports and other entertainment would send state coffers nearly $500 million a year; auto repairs and maintenance, more than $1 billion.
Both Schwarzenegger and Democrats are claiming mandates from the Nov. 2 election results in putting forth their early budget positions. Sometimes "mandate" is just an excuse for lazy thinking. Drawing lines in the sand will only lead to more budget deadlocks and new multibillion-dollar shortfalls passed to the next generation.
Governor, remember all those recall petitions? Government paralysis and mounting debt were among the reasons people signed them. Use your month to produce the real solutions you promised voters, then get the Legislature to take similar action.
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