As California goes, so goes the nation? Interesting how the Republican base is shifting...

Poll finds Bush is losing support across California

Carla Marinucci, SF Chronicle Political Writer
Tuesday, April 6, 2004

A new poll shows President Bush's approval ratings in California have plummeted, even in the state's most GOP-dominated conservative areas.

With the Iraq war taking a difficult turn and questions raised at home about the administration's terrorism policy, the poll by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University released Monday puts Bush's state approval ratings at just 38 percent, while 50 percent disapprove.

That's a dramatic change from the start of the year, when 49 percent of Californians approved of the job the president was doing, and 40 percent disapproved.

Even more telling may be the downward shift in public opinion in the nation's most populous state regarding Bush's handling of the war on terror and the war in Iraq -- two areas that Republicans have touted as the president's strengths.

The poll shows that on Iraq, just 36 percent of Californians now approve of his handling of the war, compared to 54 percent who do not. In January, 47 percent of Californians approved, and 43 percent disapproved. In two key GOP base areas, the Central Valley and Southern California counties outside Los Angeles, including Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside, Bush held just a 1 percent margin of support, the poll showed.

On the economy, the president's numbers are not much better: 35 percent of California residents approve of his handling, and 53 percent disapprove, the poll showed.

The poll of 1,023 California adults is part of the quarterly California Consumer Confidence Survey by the SJSU policy institute, which regularly tracks the opinions of state residents on a wide range of consumer issues. This survey, between March 29 and April 2, was taken during a week in which former counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke criticized the Bush administration's anti-terrorist efforts in testimony before the Sept. 11 commission -- testimony that received extensive media coverage.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Portions of the poll focusing on Bush's handling of such key issues as the economy, the war and terrorism were released Monday. They suggest that even in conservative bastions, "if the war on terrorism and his handling of the war in Iraq are the centerpieces of (Bush's) presidency ... then in California at least, he's found wanting by people throughout the state,'' said Phil Trounstine, director of the SJSU Survey and Policy Research Institute.

While the poll doesn't intend to track voting preferences, it does strongly suggest that Bush's marks are falling among "average citizens" concerned with issues that affect their daily lives, according to Trounstine - - a former San Jose Mercury News political writer and former adviser to then- Gov. Gray Davis who now heads the SJSU consumer research institute.

Trounstine said that perhaps the "single most damning problem" for Bush is results on the question: Generally speaking, do you believe that what President Bush tells the American people is true?

More Californians, 48 percent, said no to the question -- and 42 percent said yes. In the heavily Democratic Bay Area, 56 percent said they did not believe the president, and 33 percent said they did.

In two GOP strongholds, Bush got barely passing marks: in the Central Valley, 50 percent said they believe what the president says is true, and 37 percent said they did not; in the Southern California GOP strongholds, 50 per cent said they believed the president, and 43 percent did not.

"We've seen historically that when the White House develops a credibility problem, it's very difficult to recover,'' said Trounstine.

Among other findings of the poll:

-- Bush's approval ratings even in conservative areas have shifted downward in the past three months. In Southern California counties other than Democratic-leaning Los Angeles, the president's approval-disapproval rating today is 44-44, an even split; in January, he held overwhelmingly positive 58- 31 percent ratings.

-- In the Silicon Valley, Bush's approval rating has gone from 40 percent to 29 percent in the current survey. On his handling of the economy, Bush got a 61 percent disapproval rating in January of this year; the most recent survey shows that 64 percent of Silicon Valley residents now disapprove of his economic approach.

-- Asked if the war in Iraq has made America less safe, 46 percent said yes, 28 percent said no, and 19 percent said it had no effect. Only in the Central Valley, by 35 to 30 percent, do Californians feel safer because of the war.

Republicans caution that the poll of California consumers measures shifting opinion but doesn't narrow its focus to California's registered voters -- who will decide the 2004 election.

Hoover Institution research fellow Bill Whalen said the bottom line is the critical question that wasn't asked: "Even if you're not pleased with Iraq ... are you still willing to vote for (Democratic presidential candidate) John Kerry?''

Still, "the numbers are really surprising -- even for California,'' says Whalen. But, he argues, they may simply show "how much California is out of the mainstream from the rest of the country,'' which has continued to support Bush on the issue of terrorism and Iraq.




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