Former intelligence advisor and expert Larry Johnson on Law Enforcement verses knee-jerk militarism. It dovetails perfectly into the announcement of the International Brotherhood of Police Officers' endorsement of Kerry below.

FALSE PROGRESS IN THE WAR ON TERROR?

By

Larry C. Johnson

301 767-0825

Despite Bush Administration claims that we are achieving success in the much ballyhooed war on terrorism, the data for 2003 reveals some ominous, disturbing trends. The U.S. State Department’s annual report, Patterns of Global Terrorism 2003, offers a pretty rosy assessment: the total number of terrorist attacks last year fell to levels not seen since 1969 and deaths from terrorism were cut almost in half. Moreover, the number of people wounded by terrorists also shrank, albeit slightly. But a careful examination of the statistics shows that the U.S. Government does not know how to add. Moreover, a look at the details of the specific attacks reveals that the threat of Islamic terrorism is growing rather than shrinking.



For starters the U.S. Government got the numbers wrong. The State Department press release issued on 30 April claimed that terrorists last year were responsible for 190 attacks, 307 deaths, and 1593 injuries. But these numbers do not match the number of dead and wounded actually listed in Appendix A, “Chronology of Significant Terrorist Incidents, 2003”. If you do your own tabulation you will discover that at least 390 people died and 1910 were wounded. Not only was the data miscounted, but significant events were inadvertently excluded. For example, none of the attacks that occurred during the last half of November and all of December 2003 were taken into account, such as the terrorist bombings in Turkey last November that killed at least 61.



In addition, it appears that data listed in the narrative of the report was ignored in the final statistics. The report describes in detail 13 attacks in Russia apparently carried out by Chechen terrorists, which left 244 dead and 654 injured. Chechen terrorists have close ties with Al Qaeda. Yet, these figures were not included in the final states. If we factor in the Russian attacks it appears that in 2003 there were actually 203 attacks, 695 murdered, and 2390 wounded.



This was not an auspicious start for the recently established Terrorism Threat Integration Center (TTIC), who had the task of assembling and counting the incidents for the U.S. Department of State. Tracking terrorists is supposed to be a priority. Unfortunately TTIC is having trouble with simple addition. (No wonder we are having trouble finding Bin Laden.)



Beyond the inaccurate numbers is a more disturbing fact—Islamic extremists tied to Bin Laden are alive and killing. The number of significant attacks jumped from 139 to 170, which is an increase of 22% percent over the number recorded in 2002 (the number of significant attacks is probably larger but State is still trying to get an accurate figure from TTIC). According to the State Department a “significant attack” is one that “results in loss of life or serious injury to persons, abduction . . . of persons, major property damage, and/or is an act or attempted act that could reasonable be expected to create the conditions noted.”



Probe further into the specifics of who is carrying out the attacks and who is doing the killing and the picture of the terrorist threat becomes clear. Nine countries—Afghanistan, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Israel, Morocco, the Philippines, Russia and Saudi Arabia—experienced for 52% percent of all attacks, 96% percent of the fatalities, and 88% of the injuries from international terrorism in 2003. All nine were attacked by groups or individuals considered Islamic extremists. The attacks in eight of the nine are tied directly to individuals with ties to Osama Bin Laden and his network. (Israel was the only country not facing an Al Qaeda onslaught.)



Although Al Qaeda has been hit and hit hard by the United States, it remains a viable, dangerous movement. Adherents are driven in part by the ephemeral goal of the caliphate—a worldwide Islamic government. They devoutly believe that a restoration of Islamic ideas and practices through jihad will usher in a new reign of peace.



Osama’s jihadist movement appears to have gained some traction last year. For example, Bin Laden’s adherents carried out more attacks in 2003 than in the previous ten years combined and have continued the assault into 2004. They have spread attacks throughout the Muslim world, reaching from Morocco to Indonesia. This year’s attack in Spain was a further reminder that Al Qaeda has not disappeared.



The U.S. invasion of Iraq appears to be a key factor helping fuel the terrorist wave by inspiring young Muslims to pursue jihad against the West in general and the United States in particular. Just as the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan rallied many Muslims to the cause of jihad, the war in Iraq has enabled Islamic extremists to attract new followers eager to kill Americans. Last year marked the first time that terrorist attacks inside Iraq figured prominently in the U.S. Government stats. Besides the attacks against U.S. military and coalition forces, there were eleven incidents that left 61 people dead and more than 200 injured. So far, not a single guilty party has been arrested or tried for these attacks. And the violence continues with the latest outrage by Al Zarqawi, an associate of Bin Laden, who beheaded a U.S. citizen in Iraq.



The terrorism surge also is being assisted by the fact that we ignore some terrorist activity and fail to address it as part of the so-called Global War on Terrorism. India, for example, remains the forgotten step child in the war on terrorism. For the second straight year they experienced more terrorist attacks and fatalities than any other country in the world. Two of the groups behind these attacks, the Harakat ul Ansar and the Lashkar Tayyiba, have longstanding ties to Osama Bin Laden and received training in Afghanistan. In fact, the U.S. cruise missile strike in August 1998, which was intended to kill Osama Bin Laden, killed members of these groups and the Pakistan intelligence officials who were training them. (Pakistan, our vaunted ally in the war on terrorism, continues to permit members of its intelligence service to assist Islamic terrorists that are targeting India, but that is another story for another time.)



All is not lost nor do we face a hopeless situation. The terrorist attacks in countries like Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Spain have precipitated aggressive investigations that have helped identify and root out terrorist cells in these countries and in others, such as Italy and France. The critical goal is to sustain and expand international cooperation on these investigations.



Although the Bush Administration brags that it has shifted counterterrorism policy from a law enforcement strategy to a military one, the reality is that the bulk of the work to be done consists mostly of police and intelligence officials tracking down leads and analyzing clues. Unfortunately, the U.S. reluctance to share intelligence information with German and British officials has allowed individuals implicated in the 9-11 attacks to go free. Recent reports out of Spain indicate we are repeating this mistake.



It is time for the Bush Administration to focus its efforts on facilitating the cooperation on the intelligence and law enforcement fronts here at home and abroad. If we fail to act smartly against the Islamists who believe God is on their side in their jihad against the west, we are likely to face more attacks in the future and a rising body count. On the other hand, we can contain and reduce this threat. If we can find the terrorists and kill them, that will be a welcomed outcome. Unfortunately, our foes rarely mass in a place were military assets can be used. Instead, we must recognize that the bulk of our effort in the coming years will depend on securing the cooperation of other countries in rooting out terrorist cells, a willingness on our part to share intelligence with countries we don’t really like, and a public diplomacy effort to counter the damage caused by the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the abuses in Abu Ghraib prison.




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