This "battle" won't happen. Kerry is going to start rising as the nation's candidate because the older, more conservative voters are going to vote for him and they are the only ones who vote in significant numbers, especially during the primaries. Why? Because he's got their issues covered. Why am I constantly beating the drum for him? Because I know he's right on the issues and the man for the job of BEATING GEORGE BUSH AND SENDING HIM PACKING TO CRAWFORD AS THE BIGGEST FRAUD IN U.S. HISTORY.

July 26, 2003
The Battle of Boston?
By ASHBEL GREEN

Let me offer a contrarian prediction. The contest for next year's Democratic presidential nomination will be the most unpredictable in half a century.

There is no front-runner now, and there is not likely to be one by next March, the time that most political experts and journalists usually figure the issue will be decided. My suspicion is that they could be very wrong.

Suppose, in the early primaries and caucuses, Dick Gephardt wins Iowa, Howard Dean or John Kerry takes New Hampshire, John Edwards is first in South Carolina, and Joe Lieberman prevails in Arizona. Where's the groundswell? Where's the Big Mo? Will Time and Newsweek put all the candidates on their covers?

Pundits have become trapped by the memories of what has happened in presidential campaigns the last several decades, forecasting the current war as if it were to be determined by the strategies and tactics of previous conflicts. Their assumptions are that American voters want to make up their minds in a hurry, and that the candidates will run out of money if the process gets extended.

Let me suggest another contrarian notion. Suppose the Democratic nomination doesn't get settled until the national convention. Suppose that several candidates remain in play in July 2004, when the delegates convene in Boston.

The television networks would have to expand their coverage, in expectation that a real competition would greatly enlarge the audience. Americans love a contest, and the sight of presidential aspirants battling head-to-head for delegate votes could well galvanize public attention. The suspense, even if the actual decision was made by party power brokers in a smoke-free room, might excite voters and stimulate interest in the November election.

There hasn't been a true challenge for a nomination since 1956, when Estes Kefauver bested John F. Kennedy for the Democratic vice-presidential designation. Kennedy may have lost that August night in Chicago, but the drama of the contest made him a household name and paved the way for his presidential nomination four years later. For the Democratic Party, now pitted against a popular president with gobs of money, another knockdown imbroglio might be just the thing.

Ashbel Green is a book editor.




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